Frequently Asked Questions

Use the Trade Journal on the left: fill Date & Time, Asset, P&L (£), Risk (1R) Amount (£), Outcome (Win/Loss), and optional Tags (comma-separated), then click "Add Trade". Manual trades are automatically saved to the database.

Yes. Click "Import from CSV". Required columns: Date, Asset, P&L, Risk(1R). Optional: Tags (semicolon-separated). Date format: DD/MM/YYYY HH:mm. Imported trades are automatically saved to the database. Invalid rows are skipped and reported.

Yes. Click "Export to CSV" to download all your trades in CSV format. The file includes Date, Asset, P&L, Risk(1R), Outcome, and Tags columns. Perfect for backup or analysis in Excel/Google Sheets.

Below Dashboard → “Filter by Tag”, click any tag pill to filter stats and charts to those trades. Click “Clear Filter” to reset.

All trades are automatically saved to your secure database account when you're logged in. Changes sync automatically.

Initial Balance (£) sets your starting account value. The Current Balance shows your Initial Balance plus the cumulative P&L from all trades.

The sum of all individual trade profits and losses. It’s your raw outcome before risk adjustment.

Total Gross Profit ÷ Total Gross Loss. Above 1.0 means profits exceed losses; higher values indicate stronger edge.

Percentage of profitable trades. It’s the MLE of your success probability and updates with filters applied.

Expected value per trade in R-multiples (wins and losses averaged). Positive values suggest a scalable edge.

Average R per win ÷ average R per loss. Combine with Win Rate to understand strategy shape.

Minimum Win Rate required so average gains cover average losses given current risk-reward.

Max Drawdown is the worst historical equity drop; Current Drawdown is distance from the latest equity peak now.

Net Profit ÷ Max Drawdown. Shows resilience. >2.0 is typically considered strong.

Risk-adjusted return using total volatility. Useful for comparing systems on a normalized basis.

Returns per unit of downside risk. Ignores upside volatility for a more trader-relevant view.

Measures variability of P&L per trade in currency terms. Larger values mean more swingy outcomes.

Assesses streak randomness. |Z| ≤ 1.96 ≈ random; outside may indicate psychological or process patterns.

Van Tharp’s system quality. <1.6 Junk, 1.6–1.9 Average, 2.0–2.4 Good, 2.5–2.9 Excellent, >3.0 Holy Grail. Needs ~30+ trades.

Enter Balance, Risk %, Stop Loss (points/pips), and Value per point. Outputs Amount to Risk and Position Size for consistent risk.

Uses your filtered Win Rate and R-Expectancy with chosen Risk % and Drawdown to estimate the probability of hitting that loss limit.

5th percentile simulated loss over the next N trades (Trades per Series). Switch to “Set Limit” to define your own VaR cap and see breach odds.

Extreme R outcomes beyond Loss ≤ threshold or Win ≥ threshold. Auto mode estimates their probability and average P&L from your data.

Visualizes Win and Loss Rates by weekday to spotlight favorable or difficult days. Helpful for scheduling and caution zones.

Kelly Criterion calculates your optimal position size as a percentage of capital. Formula: W - [(1 - W) / R], where W = win rate and R = payoff ratio. A positive Kelly suggests you have an edge. Most professional traders use half-Kelly (50% of the calculated value) for safety. For example, if Kelly shows 20%, consider risking 10% per trade.

Payoff Ratio uses actual monetary values (Avg Win £ / Avg Loss £), while Risk-Reward uses R-multiples. Both show how much you make on wins vs losses. A Payoff Ratio > 1.5 means you make at least 50% more on winning trades than you lose on losing trades, which is considered good.

These show your single best and worst trades. If your Largest Win is more than 3x your Average Win, it's an outlier - your system may be relying on rare big wins. Similarly, if your Largest Loss is more than 3x your Average Loss, review your risk management for that trade. Consistent sizing is key to long-term profitability.

Omega Ratio is a probability-weighted measure of gains vs losses that considers the full distribution of returns, not just mean and standard deviation like Sharpe. It's more sophisticated because it accounts for tail risks. An Omega > 1.3 is excellent, > 1.0 is required for profitability. It's preferred by institutional traders for this reason.

MAR Ratio = Net Profit / Maximum Drawdown. It shows how much return you generate per unit of risk (drawdown). A MAR > 1.0 means your total profit exceeds your worst drawdown, which is excellent. MAR > 0.5 is acceptable. If MAR < 0.5, you're taking too much risk relative to returns and should review position sizing.

TOPC provides 32+ professional-grade trading metrics including: Profit Factor, Win Rate, Expectancy, Kelly Criterion, Payoff Ratio, Sharpe Ratio, Sortino Ratio, Omega Ratio, SQN, VaR, Max Drawdown, Recovery Factor, MAR Ratio, Z-Score, Markov Analysis, and many more. All metrics are calculated in real-time as you add trades.

Shows conditional probabilities for the next trade after a Win vs after a Loss. Reveals pressing advantage or revenge-trading risk.

Click on the "Markov Chain Analysis" tab in your dashboard navigation. You can also add it manually from the dashboard or import your existing trades via CSV to analyze patterns.

Track win/loss events, view frequency distributions (daily & hourly), analyze day-of-week patterns, identify optimal trading times, and get probability predictions for your next trade outcome based on historical patterns.

Yes! Export your trades from the dashboard as CSV (Date, Asset, P&L, Risk(1R), Outcome, Tags format), then use the "Import CSV" button on the Markov Chain Analysis page. The system automatically converts your trades into win/loss events for pattern analysis.

The Markov Chain algorithm analyzes state transitions (Win→Next, Loss→Next) to calculate probabilities. It also identifies temporal patterns like most likely day of week and time of day for wins/losses based on your trading history.

All Markov Chain Analysis data is stored locally in your browser's localStorage (key: "topc_markov_predictions_v1"). Your data never leaves your device unless you explicitly export it. You can use "Export CSV" to backup or "Delete All" to clear data.

Estimates the most likely weekday for the next win/loss based on the last outcome. Highlights weekly rhythms.

Click "Start AI Analysis" to get personalized feedback on your trading performance. The AI analysis is powered by our secure backend system and provides insights based on your trade data.